Strategy review
Value vs Momentum (Sahil Rohmehtra)
Reviewed video: “Best Intraday Strategy for Current Market? | Value or Momentum”
The claim
Trade in the direction of an established trend (20MA>50MA, both rising). Momentum = shallow pullback that holds above the 20MA; Value = deep pullback to the 50MA. Pick whichever, buy the dip.
How we tested it
Mechanized both entries with an identical trend filter and exit, 159 large/mid + 138 small-caps, 8 years, 0.25% cost. Year-by-year regime analysis on small-caps.
The data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 2020 | +0.30R |
| 2021 | +0.20R |
| 2022 | -0.00R |
| 2023 | +0.58R |
| 2024 | -0.02R |
| 2025 | -0.13R |
| 2026 | -0.07R |
₹2,00,000 track record
Backtested as a ₹2,00,000 portfolio: up to 5 positions at once, risking 1% of equity per trade, profits compounded. Monthly returns (% of account) below — yellow = up red = down.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | -2 | -6 | +0 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -0 | +9 | -2 | -2% | |||
| 2020 | +0 | +1 | -6 | -1 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -4 | -1 | -2 | -10% | ||
| 2021 | +4 | -1 | +3 | -3 | +12 | +2 | -0 | +4 | +0 | +8 | +8 | +41% | |
| 2022 | -1 | -3 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | +7 | +2 | +3 | -2 | -2% | |
| 2023 | -2 | +12 | -2 | -0 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +0 | +13 | -1 | -0 | +23% |
| 2024 | -0 | +8 | -1 | -0 | -1 | -0 | +4 | +17 | +2 | -5 | -2 | -1 | +20% |
| 2025 | -4 | -2 | +3 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | -2 | +4% | ||
| 2026 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +0 | +2 | +7 | +14% |
Our verdict
The first strategy that's positive in aggregate (+0.06R large, +0.42R… sorry +0.16R small per trade), because it's genuine trend-following — the one thing that works. And 'value vs momentum' turns out to be a wash: both make money, neither dominates.
The catch: it's bull-market beta in disguise. The entire edge lives in 2020, 2021 and 2023; 2024, 2025 and 2026 are all negative. A per-stock trend filter isn't enough — you need a market-breadth regime gate, which the strategy lacks. The 'value' deep-pullback entry is a useful, reusable trigger though.
Bottom line
★★★☆☆ 3.0/5