Pullback Swing (Hiren Gabani)

The claim

In a strong Stage-2 uptrend, buy an orderly shallow pullback to the 10/20 EMA on drying volume and a tight bar; ride with a 1/3-1/3-1/3 runner. Pitched as winning 8 out of 10 times.

How we tested it

Mechanized on Nifty-50 daily with a market-breadth regime gate, plus an exit-retune test to isolate whether the exit or the entry was the problem.

The data

Our verdict

One of the more thoughtfully constructed setups — Stage-2 trend, orderly pullback, volume dry-up, runner exit. It clearly comes from a real framework, not just an indicator mashup.

But the '8 out of 10' claim collapses to a 19% win rate and −0.51R. Re-tuning the exit made it worse, which proves the entries simply don't resolve into wins — the exit was never the problem. The 'orderly vs hard pullback' judgment is either unfalsifiable discretion or survivorship-picked chart examples; it doesn't mechanize on 2024–26 data.